Mindpower+vs+Showmanship,+Sefara,+City+Press



=Mindpower vs Showmanship=

Makhudu Sefara, City Press, 21 October 2007
//The ANC succession debate has been characterised as a contest between Jacob Zuma, the showman, and President Thabo Mbeki, the intellectual. But Makhudu Sefara says it is the quality of the delegates' minds that will determine who gets entrusted with the party's stewardship.//

The ANC often says a “national democratic society is a conscious construct” dependent on conscious actions by people from a myriad backgrounds to survive.

Often, it follows this line with the dictum that the people are their own liberators, implying that the dominant in society must not undermine the power of the dominated to unchain themselves.

As the clock ticks closer to December, many ask whether the delegates at this conference will prove to be their own liberators from President Thabo Mbeki’s rule or if they will construct a future for this country away from the showmanship of ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma.

But following the ANC audit process, it is the quality of the minds that will be at the ANC national conference in Limpopo that has become fascinating for many interested in the outcome of the succession fight.

The future of this country of 45 million people was, as of last week, firmly put in the hands of about 4 000 delegates. While no one can tell what these 4 000 suddenly important South Africans think, their level of thinking and perhaps their backgrounds have become of interest.

At this stage, insofar as the battle for the ANC leadership is concerned, it would no longer matter if one candidate was able to fill a stadium in Durban, Kimberley or Musina with supporters. Opinion surveys, iZimbizos and rallies in various provinces were only helpful to the extent that the number and identities of delegates were unknown.

Put differently, if Mbeki or Zuma please, or are approved of by people other than the 4 000 designated delegates, such approval or support will be meaningless.

In trying to decipher the thinking of these important 4 000 delegates, many say that because the ANC prides itself as an organisation that represents the poor, will this then mean the Limpopo lekgotla is a meeting of the poor?

The ANC, in its strategy and tactics document, says a significant part of the “working class in our country are the rural poor, mostly unemployed, landless, engaged in self-employment through survivalist micro-entrepreneurial activity or farmworkers in insecure low-paying jobs”. Will they then constitute the majority of conference ­attendees?

Or will a large portion of delegates be your average educated councillor, mayor, member of provincial legislature, member of Parliament, real and/or aspirant capitalists?

Will these, essentially the country’s middle stratum, be in the majority? Or will the conference be an even spread of both worlds?

In general, the interest of a number of people is on the aggregate thinking levels of delegates because it is therein that clues could be found on where the wind is blowing.

A Limpopo ANC member says while there is a tribal ring to the Mbeki/Zuma battle, there is also an important class component to it.

“A lot of people in the middle strata will most likely support Mbeki and be critical of Zuma. This is because they have access to information and analysis of the situation and will know that while Zuma is a likeable person, he is not equipped for the position he has designs on,” notes the member.

She adds that Zuma is liked more for his charm and showmanship, which people don’t find in Mbeki. “Those in the lower strata of society would not mind this much, but those in the middle strata would question what the implications of Zuma’s lapses in judgment would be for the country. They would want a candidate who, though not perfect, is the embodiment of the lofty values for which the ANC is known. They believe, as I do, that Zuma is found wanting on these values,” she says.

An NEC member says most of the 4 000 will be ordinary civil servants.

“You will find mostly poor, village or township teachers or civil servants in the majority. But what has always happened is that in the ANC, you find a small but powerful middle class, listened to and trusted by your teacher-type delegates. So the middle class, though few in numbers, always gets its way because of its influence.

“Look at what happened at the policy conference, for example. The alleged ‘pro-poor’ positions propagated by the ANC Youth League and their Cosatu friends, despite the poor being in the majority, were thrown out principally by the few, but dominant, middle-class delegates who dictated terms and won arguments at commissions. The same things happen at conference: the middle class exerts influence on the poor who then agree with them on a particular pattern.”

Another Limpopo member dis­agrees. He says of the Mbeki/Zuma battle in Limpopo: “If you listen to the wind in Polokwane, where there is a concentration of the middle strata, for example, you could say Zuma has won the province. But when you go outside the town, the mood is different. People trust Mbeki.”

An MP says ultimately what is deemed important by the 4 000 delegates will influence their decision.

“Look, if most of the 4 000 delegates feel uncomfortable with Zuma’s comments at his rape trial, you can’t tell them he was acquitted and such comments should not be considered. That is what influences them privately as they cast their secret votes. If a delegate, for example, looks at Zuma’s pending fraud case, how he handled or mishandled his finances, how Schabir (Shaik) was able to manipulate him to get Zuma to tout for his businesses – that could be their factor. They do not have to put it on the table and have it discussed. If, in their own minds, they are not okay with what you did, you are out. No amount of media and expert pontification will change or influence them. No opinion polls or rallies in their provinces will change that. This is the power the secret ballot affords each delegate.”

Similarly, where it relates to Mbeki, each delegate might look at his list and ask if Mbeki could still be president, running the country from Luthuli House and if this is ­desirable.

“If a delegate is okay with that set- up, they will vote for him. If they think it is unworkable, they won’t. Delegates will ask themselves many questions, most of which will not be debated publicly and the answers to these questions will influence how they vote,” he says.

If they see in Zuma a person easily controlled by Shaik, do they not worry Mbeki will control whoever takes over? Can Mbeki convince them he has no designs to run things from behind the scenes?

However delegates answer these questions, and whichever way they elect, their actions will constitute, in a great way, this country’s construction of the democratic society the party often talks of.

The S&T document reads further: “ANC cadres should act as the custodians of the principles of fundamental social change; winning respect among their peers and society through their exemplary conduct.”

In the end, the question will be who of the two best embodies this “exemplary conduct” agreed on.

There seems to be consensus that Zuma’s charm disarms even his harshest critics, while in Mbeki there is little, if any, charm to speak of. Conversely, there is consensus that Mbeki’s intellect and ability to tackle complicated government issues is superior, while Zuma has offered the world a feast of embarrassing moments with his questionable sense of judgment.

Another MP wraps it up interestingly, saying delegates will vote for a candidate in whom they find a confluence of encouraging attributes. Delegates, he hopes, know that running a post-apartheid government is not a theatrical task.

These 4 000 are the bedrock of the “conscious construct” that is the democratic South Africa waiting to be born anew in Limpopo.


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