2005-11-10,+Gautrain+Blues,+parliament,+letters

= Fears Gautrain will be a large, expensive 'white elephant' =

The Star, Johannesburg, November 9, 2005 By Janine Stephen

Does South Africa really need the Gautrain? And can middle-class South Africans be persuaded to give up their car journeys to travel on it?

Parliament's transport committee yesterday put these and other hard questions to Jack van der Merwe, the project leader of the high-speed rail link between Johannesburg, Pretoria and Johannesburg International Airport, amid concerns about the project's spiralling costs.

Fears were also expressed that the project would be unprofitable and amount to a very large, very expensive "white elephant".

Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said in his mini-Budget speech on October 25 that the project would cost the fiscus about R20-billion. Until the minister's announcement, it was thought the rail project would cost R7-billion.

Committee chairperson Jeremy Cronin voiced concern that parliament was being given just "a few hours" to assess what he called the "largest-ever budgetary allocation to a public transport project".

The pressure is on to get the project out of the starting blocks if it is to have any chance of being completed in time for the 2010 World Cup.

Van der Merwe said the increase in costs was due to a number of factors, including changes made after the environmental impact assessment, rising land costs and VAT not included in the 2002 costing.

He explained that the net present value for the train in 2005 is R12-billion, and that the R20-billion referred to government's "total exposure over the next five years in nominal terms".

MPs from a range of political parties questioned Van der Merwe about the project's target market and feasibility.

Stuart Farrow, of the Democratic Alliance, and ANC MP Greg Schneemann both asked whether cost analyses had been carried out to see if upgrading Metrorail's existing systems could be a better option.

But Van der Merwe poured cold water on the idea, saying that Metrorail could not "do" the Gautrain as its systems were too old and could not be integrated with new high-speed systems.

He staunchly defended the Gautrain, saying it would create more than 135 000 jobs and alleviate severe traffic congestion in the Johannesburg- Pretoria corridor.

He also said it would serve as a catalyst for the broader upgrading of public transport.

Under extensive questioning, it appeared that the train could incur costs beyond the R20-billion construction figure if it did not attract enough customers. The present financial model envisages 134 000 passenger trips a day. If there are fewer commuters, the provincial government will be asked for extra funds.

Van der Merwe said such costs would be "small" compared with the construction costs, "in the small hundreds of millions".

MPs felt that getting car owners to surrender their cars would be difficult, and Van der Merwe agreed that a carrot-and-stick method would be necessary.

He noted that the price of tickets had to remain lower than the cost of running a car in order to attract customers.

But after four hours of discussion some committee members still appeared uncomfortable with the massive cost of the project.

Cronin pointed out that the transport budget for 2004-05 for all modes of transportation for the entire country was just R4,67-billion.

He queried whether putting so much money into one project did not exclude many people without cars or the choice of using rail instead.

From: http://www.thestar.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=129&fArticleId=2986788

Business Day, Johannesburg, 09 November 2005 = Gautrain hits R20bn storm in Parliament = Linda Ensor, Political Correspondent

CAPE TOWN — Transport Minister Jeff Radebe is understood to be in favour of linking the Gautrain with other public transport services in Gauteng to ensure the R20bn project benefits all sections of society.

Radebe will consider a departmental report on integrating Gautrain into the broader public transport system, particularly the nationwide urban passenger network Metrorail, before making a recommendation to the cabinet.

Deputy director general of public transport Lucky Mantona said the department’s report would highlight key areas where integration could be achieved and how the Gautrain project could be used to upgrade feeder rail services.

One obstacle is that Gautrain will use a wider gauge of rail than the existing network.

“We need to move far beyond what is proposed with the Gautrain,” he said.

Radebe’s move would address concerns raised yesterday by transport portfolio committee chairman Jeremy Cronin and opposition parties that the projected expenditure could be better spent upgrading public transport to the benefit of millions of passengers.

The Gautrain would at most serve an estimated 120 000 passengers each day from 2010, while millions would be forced to use the undercapitalised, unreliable and unsafe public transport, Cronin said during a briefing of the parliamentary committee by Gautrain project leader Jack van der Merwe.

Cronin compared the R20bn sum to the “piddling” R4,7bn allocated for investment in all forms of public transport in the fiscal year.

Cronin suggested the cabinet postpone a final decision on the project, due next month, to allow for thorough evaluation. He said other levels of government seemed to share the committee’s “sense of unease” about the Gautrain.

MPs were concerned about possible hidden costs emerging later, and questioned Van der Merwe about a guarantee under which the Gauteng government would have to pay the Gautrain operators if passenger numbers, and revenue projections, fell below forecasts.

Van der Merwe said he did not wish to divulge too many details about the contract as negotiations were under way with the Bombela consortium, preferred bidder for the contract.

Cronin said the committee was also unhappy about the pressure created by linking the Gautrain project completion to the 2010 Soccer World Cup, and did not appreciate government “being held over a barrel to rush, rush, rush” its decision.

Danny Jordaan, CEO of the local organising committee for the 2010 Soccer World Cup, yesterday also weighed into the argument about the Gautrain’s relationship to the soccer tournament.

In a statement, Jordaan said Gautrain did not form part of the bid, and in terms of the bid was not required to be finished on time.

Van der Merwe last week retracted comments in which he linked SA’s success in its bid to the project. He repeated yesterday that there was no legally binding contract tying Gautrain to the World Cup bid, though there was a “moral obligation”. With Chantelle Benjamin

From: http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/national.aspx?ID=BD4A110411

Business Day, Johannesburg, Letters, 09 November 2005 = Jack of all trades =

Not long ago Business Day expressed support in an editorial for the Gautrain project, despite its mammoth cost. A different tone emerged in, Shilowa Express’s track record so far is confusion and a high-speed cost rise (November 7).

Jack van der Merwe is the champion of two gigantic Gauteng government projects, the Gautrain and the new parliamentary precinct. I trust parliamentarians will ask him why the projects are not linked to one another or other developments in Johannesburg and Gauteng.

The Gautrain will terminate at Park Station in Johannesburg, a long and unlikely walk to the government precinct. Does anyone envisage senior civil servants using at least three forms of public transport (taxi, train, bus) to move from Fox Street in Johannesburg to the main centres of government in Pretoria?

The Gautrain is set to make precisely no contribution to travel to and from Soweto, Tembisa, Mamelodi, Mabopane or Orange Farm — whose long-suffering commuters will be left further behind as Gautrain whizzes into the distance.

One connection made between the Gautrain and the city is the notion that it must be running in time for the Soccer World Cup in 2010. Yet none of the stations will serve major crowd destinations like Ellis Park and Soccer City.

Some foreign visitors might take a train from the airport to hotels in Sandton, but most football fans won’t be staying there.

The transport mess likely to occur without planning for totally different movement patterns in 2010 will not easily be addressed if R20bn is being taken up by the Gautrain.

As with the government precinct plan, a key problem is the lack of informed public discussion of alternatives. Megaprojects which take the lion’s share (or more) of the available resources — and starve us of the equally imaginative, but incremental, cost-effective, people-friendly and properly integrated developments we actually need — will take us nowhere, deepen our divisions and cost us money for the rest of our lives.

Melville**
 * Alan Mabin

From: [|**http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/opinion.aspx?ID=BD4A110461**]