Mbeki+disregards+reality+of+change,+Karima+Brown,+Business+Day



=Go-it-alone Mbeki disregards reality of change=


 * Karima Brown, Business Day, Johannesburg, 5 February 2008**

Unless President Thabo Mbeki steps down and the ruling party calls a snap election — an option the party has not entertained because it bizarrely believes it can manage the two centres of power that emerged after its elective conference in December — testy relations between party and state are likely to be an ever-present feature of SA’s political landscape. So everyone should brace for a rough ride between now and next year’s general elections.

Mbeki’s behaviour shortly after Polokwane, when he appeared to be in a long sulk following his ousting from the African National Congress (ANC) leadership, set the scene for the inevitable acrimony that we now see, despite the party spin that the “ANC is the only centre of power”. His decision to go ahead and appoint a partisan SABC board is a case in point. On the other hand, the ANC’s decision to purge pro-Mbeki figures from its structures underscores the fact that the fight for political control of the state is far from over.

That Mbeki chooses to remain on as SA’s president, despite the obvious loss of confidence in his leadership, in part explains why efforts to “synergise” relations between Luthuli House and the Union Buildings are likely to go pear-shaped. Mbeki, unlike many of his global counterparts, insists on serving out his term as head of state despite no longer being leader of his party. Constitutionally, Mbeki is completely within his rights, given that his electoral mandate expires only next year. But politically, Mbeki’s insistence on staying could plunge the state into more uncertainty — and the attendant instability in the bureaucracy could further erode its capacity to deliver crucial basic services.

Those who argue that the hand-over between Nelson Mandela and Mbeki is an example of how things should be done miss the point. Back then, Mbeki, who was second in command, was effectively already running matters of state, so handing over the baton was much less messy and could proceed smoothly. The party also did not have to recover from a blood-soaked succession battle.

The current situation is without precedent on a number of levels. First, none of the party’s top six occupies any senior cabinet position. This places additional pressure on consistent interaction between Luthuli House and the Union Buildings if “synergy” is to be achieved.

Mbeki, who is an ex-officio member of the ANC national working committee (NWC) and is in theory perfectly placed to serve as the link between party and state, has so far gone out of his way to be unavailable to attend these meetings. Last week’s meeting between Mbeki and Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille was scheduled at the same time as the NWC was meeting at Luthuli House. Mbeki obviously should meet the opposition, but what the clash in schedules resulted in has important consequences, starting with his state of the nation address. Unless Mbeki meets the NWC or the party’s top six before Friday, when he delivers the speech, the ANC top brass will have very little idea of what he is going to say until he speaks. This situation is far from ideal if one considers that all eyes will be on how Mbeki manages to incorporate the ANC’s Polokwane resolution, which is in fact a five-year plan, into what remains of the government’s mandate until next year.

One would have thought that, by now, Mbeki would have come to realise the value of consultation with the ANC, but in vintage Mbeki style, he will do things his own way. Judging by the track record of its own behaviour while it was in control, the outgoing elite within government is rightly concerned that purges in crucial spheres of government will further slow down delivery of government’s programme of action.

However, the reality is that leadership changes in the political or even corporate sphere are seldom bloodless and SA and the ANC are no exception. A change of guard means just that — change. Those who say that what occurred in the ANC will somehow not affect the state machinery are being disingenuous. Control of and access to the state happens mainly through the ANC. Until there is a change in the electoral system, the ANC remains a key player in holding the state accountable.


 * Brown is political editor


 * From: http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/TarkArticle.aspx?ID=3137026**

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