2005-11-21,+William+Gumede+features+Mazibuko+Jara

= Tripartite alliance racked by rebellions over Zuma saga =

Sunday Independent, Johannesburg, November 20, 2005

By William Mervin Gumede

Look beyond the noisy, toyi-toying fans and the public burning of t-shirts bearing Thabo Mbeki's face - Jacob Zuma's rather odd support base is crumbling.

For one, the public show of solidarity for the former deputy president by the leaders of the South African Communist Party, Cosatu and the communist and ANC youth leagues masks inner turmoil over support for Zuma in the face of swirling allegations of corruption and now sexual assault.

Just as the ANC's national executive committee (NEC) meeting, which started on Friday, has been a torrid affair, expect equal turmoil at the Cosatu and SACP leadership meetings this week.

Ahead of the NEC meeting, the ANC roped in the party "wise men", Nelson Mandela and stalwarts Ahmed Kathrada and Andrew Mlangeni, as counsellors - an admission that the gulf between Zuma and President Thabo Mbeki is now so deep that it is impossible to leave it to them to settle their differences.

Moreover, many ANC NEC members are worried about where the Zuma fiasco will end. They are not sure if Mbeki can restore stability without help.

The report of Kgalema Motlanthe, the ANC general secretary, to Friday's meeting pointed to debilitating infighting, backstabbing and smear campaigns between the Zuma and Mbeki factions.

Coupled to this is bitter jockeying over plum positions on the ANC's election lists.

What is clear from the briefing documents prepared for the ANC meeting is that there is deep-seated worry that the Zuma debacle will not only harm the party's local elections campaign but negatively affect its international image.

Several options are being discreetly toyed with by the ANC's leadership. Most of them are based on getting Zuma to withdraw from the presidential race because of the risk his election might pose to the ANC and the country's stability.

One proposal is to get Zuma to agree to a plea bargain. Another is to link Zuma's withdrawal from public politics to some kind of post-trial pardon. Although some ANC leaders are eager to use the allegations of sexual assault to expel Zuma from ANC positions, they fear its ramifications, not least on the ANC's faltering local election campaign.

Cosatu is similarly deeply divided. Its national office-bearers' leadership structure has already cautioned Zwelinzima Vavi, its general secretary, to tone down his public statements in favour of Zuma.

Those opposed to the support of Zuma are rallying the troops to voice their dissent and try to extricate the union from the Zuma mess without losing too much face. They argue that Cosatu's leadership has lost track of the plight of their members, who are having to battle with poor service delivery, corrupt local politicians and tenuous jobs.

Similarly, many SACP leaders are also asking why their top leadership is fiercely supporting Zuma. Some argue that, just when the ailing SACP was starting to find its feet again, ironically fuelled in part by the disillusionment at slow delivery and indifferent government officials, its leaders' enthusiastic embracing of Zuma has reversed that.

The dissenters argue that Cosatu and the SACP have lost the little power they had in deciding who will be the ANC's president after Mbeki because of their support for Zuma. More importantly perhaps, they have lost the little influence they had over policy-making - and they are unlikely to regain it.

Both leaderships are now soft-pedalling on pushing Zuma as a presidential candidate, though they are still arguing the case for supporting him as a person. They are eager for a deal whereby Zuma withdraws from the race for the presidency, remains in a senior ANC position and agrees to a plea bargain with the National Prosecuting Authority.

Public support of Zuma has also unleashed a revolt against the ANC Youth League leaders. Mazibuko Jara, the Young Communist League's national deputy secretary, is leading a group of dissenters who, in a devastating internal critique, describe the support for Zuma as "reckless". Perhaps worse for Zuma is that many of his reasonable supporters and those who have remained neutral have come to the same conclusion.

From: http://www.sundayindependent.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=1078&fArticleId=3002128