Who+would+face+the+chop+under+Zuma,+Christelle+Terreblanche,+Sindy



=Who would face the chop under Zuma as leader?=


 * Christelle Terreblanche, Sunday Independent, 9 December 2007**

//There's many a slip, but here we venture to assess cabinet members' chances under a new president//

A wide range of factors would determine what a possible Jacob Zuma cabinet would look like in 2009, but next week's Polokwane congress could settle a number of them.

The most important would be whether Zuma makes it as ANC chief and also, significantly, whether his slate of candidates for the other five top positions and the National Executive Committee (NEC) predominates in the ruling party for the next five years.

If his camp sweeps the NEC, many of the key ministers who have served more than 10 years in cabinet may not make it back.

Significantly, both President Thabo Mbeki and Mo Shaik, Zuma's top strategist, this week came out against radical leadership overhauls and purges. But most analysts believe there will be drastic changes should Zuma take the executive reins in 2009.

The congress will also determine whether the NEC gets wider powers to hold the government accountable and to be consulted in the appointment of cabinet ministers and premiers. Another determinant would be whether the congress agrees to 50/50 gender representation, which could see more players moved out to make way for women.

Under Zuma's ANC leadership, it is almost certain that the alliance partners, Cosatu and the South African Communist Party (SACP), would be granted their demand for an alliance "pact" or "platform" in which they can wield more power over policy. A policy shift will automatically require a new team, analysts agree. Most of them have pooh-poohed suggestions of a unity cabinet if one side sweeps the NEC, saying too much bad blood has already tainted the future.

A Zuma presidency could curtail the political careers of many cabinet ministers with a number of veterans facing the chop just because they are seen to have reached their sell-by date. By 2009 some would have been in executive positions since 1994 and before, as in the case of Marthinus van Schalkwyk, the environment minister.

The pro-Zuma vote has been seen as a call for new blood and new ideas. Pallo Jordan, the arts and culture minister, has been calling for a new generation of leaders but, although he is not close to Mbeki, he may be pushed aside.

Ironically, a reason for the possible axing of some senior ministers is their once intimate relationship with the South African Communist Party, a key Zuma backer.


 * The good - those likely to stay:**


 * Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma**, the foreign minister, has found favour in both camps, but this week threw her weight behind the Mbeki camp's nomination for her as deputy president instead of the Zuma camp's nomination as chairwoman. She is the most likely to survive in cabinet even if she loses the bid for second-in-command to Kgalema Motlanthe.

The appointment of **Makhenkhesi Stofile**, the sports minister, to Mbeki's cabinet was a surprise after years of leading a "left" camp in the Eastern Cape, where he served as premier until 2004. His name tops the Zuma camp's NEC list.


 * Lindiwe Sisulu**, the housing minister, is regarded as very close to Dlamini-Zuma and played her cards well with both camps, getting positioned high on both lists.


 * Naledi Pandor**, the education minister, also showed crossover appeal on the lists.


 * Thoko Didiza**, the public works minister, also nominated by the Mbeki camp for deputy secretary-general, was another with cross-over appeal.

The attack by **Zola Skweyiya**, the social development minister, on Mosiuoa Lekota, the ANC chairman, for his public drive against Zuma may have bought him some time. He has come out publicly for a basic income grant, something the alliance partners had been clamouring for, but rejected by Mbeki.


 * The bad - those likely to go:**

Along with key economic cluster cabinet members, a number of other prominent ministers' fates are in the balance because of their proximity to Mbeki and their role at the cutting edge of implementing policies that have irked the Zuma camp.


 * Sydney Mufamadi**, the provincial and local government minister, is seen as close to Mbeki. He walked out of the SACP just before its 12th congress to avoid humiliation in the election of the central committee, on which he served for decades. His handling of the Khutsong demarcation saga, in which the SACP for the first time squared up directly against the ANC in the streets, was possibly the last straw.


 * Charles Nqakula**, the safety and security minister, is still on the SACP central committee, but lost the chairmanship in July because of his close ties with Mbeki.

The rising star **of Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka**, the deputy president, is in the balance, although she is driving the Cosatu-endorsed Asgisa project. Her husband, Bulelani Ngcuka, the former prosecutions head, became the Zuma camp's enemy number one when he said in 2003 there was a prima facie case against the leading contender for the ANC's top job. When charges were finally brought against Zuma, Mbeki made the bold move to replace him with Mlambo-Ngcuka. She is nominated for ANC treasurer-general by the Mbeki camp.

The future of **Brigitte Mabandla**, the justice minister, is rosier because of her stand against the Scorpions, seen by the Zuma camp as the key state instrument deployed by Mbeki against his opponents. She led the charge for the suspension of Vusi Pikoli, the national director of public prosecutions, and the move to bring the Scorpions under the jurisdiction of the police chief.


 * Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula**, the home affairs minister, may be tied too closely to Mbeki. As ANC Women's League president, she wields some influence in both camps, but was humiliated by her delegates who shunned her drive for Dlamini-Zuma as deputy president last week. She is walking a tightrope as she intends fighting from the congress floor for 50% gender representation from top to bottom, a move likely to backfire.

Others whose fates are believed to be tied to a waning Mbeki star include **Lulu Xingwana**, the agriculture and land affairs minister, and **Joel Netshitenzhe**.


 * The ugly:**


 * Essop Pahad**, the minister in the presidency, Mbeki's longtime confidant, has often led the charge against the left. Although he worked cosily with Zuma in the Union Buildings, it takes some stretch of the imagination to see him back.


 * Mosiuoa Lekota**, the defence minister, is certain to face the axe after his "terror attack" on Zuma supporters recently. He is believed to owe his position as ANC chairman to the left, but his fate as an Mbeki man has been sealed. Last week he took on Zuma personally, which led to a cabinet colleague, Skweyiya, making a formal complaint against him this week along with the MK Veterans association.


 * Ronnie Kasrils**, the intelligence minister, has been on the skids in the Zuma camp despite his SACP credentials since the 2005 hoax e-mail scandal. The still unresolved saga led to the axing of his top intelligence chief, but Billy Masethla is on the comeback trail. The issue has also put him in conflict with Motlanthe, the Zuma nominee for deputy president.


 * Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi**, the public service and administration minister, once a darling of the left, has irked the unions with her tough stance on wage bargaining.


 * Manto Tshabalala-Msimang**, the health minister, can only be described as doomed. The butt of many of the Zuma-supporting labour and civil society formations, she is unlikely to make it into a Zuma cabinet whether her health permits or not. Her husband, Mendi Msimang, controlled the party purse strings as ANC treasurer-general but Msimang himself was nowhere to be seen on either Mbeki or Zuma top 60 lists, while Manto made only the Mbeki list.

This year's poster child of the left, **Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge**, Tshabalala-Msimang's axed former deputy, has a very good chance of succeeding her in a Zuma cabinet.


 * Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri**, the communications minister, apart from her lacklustre performance - is seen by key Zuma constituencies as presiding over an Mbeki-orientated and government-dictated SABC.

Others who have probably burned their fingers with the Zuma camp include Phillip Dexter, the former SACP treasurer, Willie Madisha, the Cosatu chairman, and Smuts Ngonyama, the ANC spokesperson, as well as most Mbeki-appointed premiers.

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