Mistake+to+keep+succession+under+wraps,+Gumede,+Sindy



=It's a mistake to keep the ANC succession debate under wraps=

The Sunday Independent, Johannesburg, February 5, 2006

 * By William Mervin Gumede**

In the ANC, the real story is often in the shadows. Away from the light, the war for succession within the ANC tripartite alliance has been like being strapped to a rollercoaster without brakes.

The different groups, lobbies and factions within the ANC are endlessly horse-trading and haggling in order to secure a presidential candidate who will fly their flag, rally the uncertain, or thwart the bids of opponents.

For now, do not expect a candidate hoping to succeed Thabo Mbeki as president of the ANC to lift his or her head above the parapets, lest it be shot off before the campaign even gets out of the starting blocks.

Nobody - except Jacob Zuma's supporters, most of whom have nothing to lose anymore - wants to be seen backing a candidate, lest the chosen heir is dragged down by his or her opponents.

Or worse, one can always be marked for redeployment to a minor office or demoted from the local government candidates list for supporting the "wrong" candidate. The text of every word spoken by Mbeki on the succession is often forensically dissected by the various factions to decipher his "real" favourite candidate or to give them clues as to how to position their candidate in the presidential race.

Often, factions try to elbow out a potential opposition candidate or leak a misdemeanour calculated to block the candidate's presidential march. They often publicly fly kites, as the South African National Civic Organisation did when its leader, Mlungisi Hlongwane, a close ally of Mbeki's, declared that the ANC should consider a third term for Mbeki - a tactic possibly designed to force the other faction to show their hand.

The SA Communist Party, the ANC Youth League and Cosatu quickly responded, saying they would block any bid by Mbeki's supporters to keep the "chief" as president of the ANC when he steps down as president of the country in 2009.

Mbeki hopes to engineer a seamless succession, secure his legacy and ensure that his successor keeps the party on the centrist course staked out by him.

This will be the first time the ANC in government experiences what looks like a competitive succession battle. Not only is all this new, but the ANC leadership fears that the succession race, if not controlled, could tear the movement apart, as it has liberation movements elsewhere.

But to keep the ANC's succession debate underground, in the shadows, or - using the ANC's euphemism - "within party structures", would be a mistake. For one, the continued public insistence by Zuma and his supporters that his candidacy has been disallowed unfairly means there must be maximum transparency in the succession process to make it credible.

It will help if campaigning is conducted in the open. Similarly, factions must be allowed to push for their candidates without fear of reprisal or accusations of undermining internal unity. The ANC is a movement of several distinct groups functioning under one umbrella. Not giving legitimacy to different lobbies and factions would undermine the ANC's unity and stability.

Perhaps the ANC could take a leaf from the way the US Democrats and Republicans organise run-offs ahead of party conventions, where leaders are finally elected. In Britain, different candidates are campaigning, openly supported by various party factions and lobbies, for the leadership of the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives also elected their leader in an open competitive run-off. Afterwards, everyone - including the losing candidates - rally behind the winner.

Taking this route, different candidates, pledging themselves to clear policy commitments and leadership styles, would then openly canvass ANC members and branches for support ahead of the deciding national conference in 2007.

However, if the ANC succession is engineered by a committee of party bosses, it will open the process to real and perceived manipulation and subsequent mistrust and rejection of the outcome - with debilitating consequences for the ANC's stability and that of the country.

When Mbeki assumed the presidency of the ANC, he captured the movement's head - with a little help from the party grandees. This time we need a candidate who can capture the hearts of the ANC's support base - and South Africa's.


 * From: http://www.sundayindependent.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=3097277 **

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