Zuma+favoured+to+lead+SA,+'Politburo',+The+Star



=Zuma favoured to lead SA=

“Political Bureau”, The Star, 25 October 2007
Jacob Zuma, the ANC deputy president, has emerged as a front-runner to replace Thabo Mbeki as president of South Africa in 2009, according to a research survey.

However, most of the same respondents agree that if Zuma becomes president, "it will bring disaster to South Africa".

Indian and Asian respondents, at 81%, are the most pessimistic of a Zuma presidency, followed by coloureds (78%) and whites (69%). Only a minority (33%) of blacks agreed that Zuma presidency would be a disaster.

A slight majority say South Africa is ready for a woman president when Mbeki steps down in 2009, with Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka trailing behind Zuma as a preferred successor.

However, the president of the country is elected by members of parliament after, in the case of the ANC, being nominated through a party list process.

The ANC's policy conference said it would have preferred the ANC president, to be elected in December, to become head of state.

Mbeki has indicated a desire to stand for the party leadership in December, but he is constitutionally barred to serve a third term as head of state. If he wins the party presidency, the ANC would have to discuss how to nominate the head of state, and not necessarily leave it to the nomination process.

The researchers, TNS Research Surveys, acknowledged that most respondents did not understand the political dynamics around the election of the country's president.

"The close correspondence of these results suggests that most people are not able to respond beyond their own personal preferences. It further suggests a lack of understanding that the next president must come from the ruling party and that the chances of this not being the ANC are low."

The respondents were asked who they felt might succeed Mbeki, and then who they would most like to be president.

The majority (27%) chose Zuma, followed by Mlambo-Ngcuka with 10%. Zuma is popular among blacks in cities (39%) and among men (42%).

The research was conducted last month among a sample of 2 000 adults from the seven major metropolitan areas of SA, "interviewing them face to face in their homes, with a margin of error of under 2,5%".

Only 8% wanted Mbeki to go for a third term. Businessmen Cyril Ramaphosa and Tokyo Sexwale, another presidential aspirant, trailed behind at 7% and 6% respectively.

Amazingly, Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille's name is ahead of such ANC luminaries as Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Finance Minister Trevor Manuel.

Independent Democrats leader Patricia de Lille and former DA leader Tony Leon follow behind at 2%.

There was a distinct preference among different racial groups.

"For metro whites, 45% gave a 'don't know' response." No clear front-runner emerged with 9% favouring Ramaphosa and 7% favouring Zuma, Mbeki or Sexwale, the survey said.

A total of 46% of the respondents disagree that SA would not be ready for a female president while 38% agreed and 16% did not know.


 * From: http://www.thestar.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=4096358**

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