Did+Eskom+attempt+to+plan+for+demand+surge,+DEBATE,+21+January+2008

=Did Eskom attempt to plan for a demand surge?=


 * Answer given on DEBATE forum, 21 January 2008**

I don't know of any specific meetings where Eskom funding requests were turned down. However, the 1998 energy white paper made energy (including power) planning the business of the DME rather than Eskom. It envisaged the unbundling and subsequent privatisation of Eskom's generating business.

Eskom was to retain 30% of generating capacity. The DME's Integrated Resource Planning was to provide the basis for putting out tenders for new generating capacity & NERSA was to oversee implementation.

In subsequent manoeuvring, Eskom got an agreement from govt (in 2001) that it would keep 70% of its generating capacity.

In 2004, Erwin suspended the unbundling / privatisation policy and announced the big 5 year expansion plan with 30% of new investment reserved for private utilities (84 bn for Eskom and a further 13bn of private investment). Erwin said govt planning was overtaken by the success of its economic growth policy. Not exactly true. The 1998 WP already foresaw the need for new generating capacity by 2007 based on Eskom projections and said decisions on investments would need to be made in 1999.

Eskom's spend is now put at 150 bn to 2012 and 700 bn odd in the medium term. In the process Eskom appears to have won back effective control of planning but under scrutiny from NERSA.

Eskom did in fact do its own expansion planning from some time in the early 2000s even though it wasn't supposed to.

Throughout the period from 1998, both DME & Eskom were supposed to be running DSM programmes. This went against the grain of Eskom's focus on maximising sales and was entirely invisible until the Cape Town blackouts in 2005/6.

The last groundWork Report (2007) is about peak oil and energy crises. It has a section on the Cape Town black outs, exploring its impacts on the politics of energy and its implications for economic and environmental justice. It also has a chapter on SA energy policy, in the context of rising global energy prices, including Eskom's expansion plans. The report is called Peak Poison because of the intensified environmental destruction. You can find it at [|www.groundwork.org.za]

One of the stories posted by Patrick today says:

"Etzinger said electricity reserves had dropped during the past year from 7 percent to minus 17 percent because there had been a decline in generation performance."

The decline in generation performance is a new factor (or a new admission).

//Ends//


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