2005-11-11,+Gautrain+white+elephant,+Business+Day

Business Day, Johannesburg, 10 November 2005

= ‘High-risk Gautrain could be white elephant’ =

Linda Ensor, Political Correspondent

CAPE TOWN — The Gautrain was a high-risk project that could become unviable if passenger projections were not realised, the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) warned yesterday.

There was a strong possibility that the high-speed train linking Johannesburg airport, the city and Pretoria could be a white elephant kept afloat by government subsidies, DBSA transport specialist Andrew Shaw told Parliament’s transport portfolio committee. It was also possible, he said, that people would use the train and make it a success.

The DBSA is one prospective funder of the R20bn project. The cabinet is due to make a final decision on the project next month.

MPs are concerned the project would benefit affluent car users on the congested Pretoria-Johannesburg highway rather than all public transport users in Gauteng.

The project, initially priced at R7bn, would cost R20bn Finance Minister Trevor Manuel announced last month — R12bn in construction costs plus financing. It was on the cusp of viability from a cost point of view, and had not fully taken risks into account, Shaw said.

“The relative benefits in relation to the R12bn cost would seem to be the greatest area of concern. This, coupled with project risks which may only be evident during the operational phase, could lead to a higher overall project cost,” he said.

A key concern is the Gautrain’s high passenger forecast. International research showed fewer commuters than projected in the majority of the 27 rail projects examined, he said.

On the plus side, Shaw found the Gautrain’s public-private partnership model innovative and a possible model for other public transport initiatives. It would also ease congestion in SA’s industrial heartland, he said.

University of Cape Town public transport expert Romano Del Mistro said a bus system could carry an equal number of passengers at a far lower cost.

Meanwhile, transport committee chairman Jeremy Cronin said Manuel’s announcement last month allowed them to scrutinise it.

“We had been following the Gautrain project for a couple of years with interest. The minister’s announcement, which revealed a much bigger contribution by national government, gave us the right to ask project members to come to speak to the portfolio committee so we could ensure that the project was well motivated, he said.” With Chantelle Benjamin

From: http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/national.aspx?ID=BD4A111247

Business Day, Johannesburg, Letters, 10 November 2005

= Reality bites Gautrain boss =

Great is the irony that Gautrain project leader Jack van der Merwe is made to jump through the hoops with Parliament’s portfolio committee on transport, on the integration of the project into the provincial transport system.

He would know that it is not integrated. By the time that the environmental impact assessment was completed for the Gautrain, there still was no provincial integrated transport plan.

All that was known of the feeder and distribution system was that it would be made up of minibus taxis and buses the same colour as the train.

In Pretoria no substantial road works are planned to bring in an additional 2000-plus vehicles at peak time into the already congested Hatfield area where people are expected to park their cars at the Gautrain station.

The Pretoria section of the route avoids the traffic-generating part of the city, a fact which Van der Merwe’s consultants proved in their analysis of alternative station locations in Arcadia.

Van der Merwe’s advisers found that hardly any passengers in Pretoria would be step-over commuters from the Metrorail system. Through the whole Pretoria basin, the Gautrain in fact duplicates the Metrorail system.

The train does not even get close to the townships around Pretoria. Van der Merwe apparently acknowledged to the portfolio committee that the target Gautrain ridership was car-owning Pretoria-Johannesburg commuters (read: whites).

All of this was of course pointed out to the Gautrain team during the so-called public participation process, but they actively stifled critical debate on the project. Now Van der Merwe has to lead his team cap in hand to national government to undo the swindle.

The hoop of the committee’s chairman, Jeremy Cronin, should be a bit more difficult to clear than the ones the public tried to put in place during their “consultation”.

Willem van Zyl Tshwane

From: http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/opinion.aspx?ID=BD4A111177

= Serious concerns over Gautrain's feasibility =

The Star, November 10, 2005

By Janine Stephen

An independent transport expert has claimed that travelling between Tshwane and Johannesburg on a cheaper bus-based system could take just nine minutes longer than a trip on the R20-billion Gautrain.

Romano Del Mistro, of the University of Cape Town's urban transport research group, yesterday asked parliament's transport committee whether building the Gautrain was a matter of national pride rather than the best transport solution available.

He suggested that travelling 62km via bus on bus lanes, including transport to a station, waiting for the vehicle and getting to work on the other side, would take 69 minutes.The same trip via the Gautrain would take an hour.

"Is it worth it?" Del Mistro asked. "In my view, alternative modes of transport other than the Gautrain have not been debated sufficiently."

There is considerable concern among parliamentarians that the Gautrain project will not attract sufficient passengers, meaning the government would have to subsidise operating costs as well as fork out for the majority of the R20-billion in construction costs.

Committee chairperson Jeremy Cronin said he had received "informal indications" that the Gauteng Legislature was expecting to pay R540-million a year in operating costs for the Gautrain. Project leader Jack van der Merwe could not verify the figure.

There are also concerns that the train will service just a fraction of the country's 6- to 7-million daily commuters and gobble up resources that could be used to improve public transport countrywide. It aims to attract wealthier car owners and is expected to draw just 134 000 one-way journeys a day when it opens.

Cronin said the committee would make recommendations to the cabinet before it took the "critical" decision to give the Gautrain the go-ahead. He hinted that the committee was not in favour of the expensive train. "We are not here to sink a project," he said, "but we're not here to make it fly either. We're here to ask searching questions on behalf of the public."

He noted that the project would create jobs, but "my concern is that if the thing fails, then we will have a very costly white elephant. And even if it succeeds, there is the danger that we will have a First World success in a sea of underresourced, Second World transport.

"However, scrapping or delaying the Gautrain would be difficult, Cronin said.

Private companies could pull out of the deal or change their offers if there were major delays "As we heard, (Gautrain officials) received two rooms full of tender documents (for the project)," Cronin said. "They are afraid that all their hard work could go down the drain." He added that the taxi recapitalisation programme had been sent back to the drawing board after serious concerns had emerged.

From: http://www.thestar.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=129&fArticleId=2988540