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//If ruling party’s power is eroded//
=Possible dangers of a weakened ANC =


 * The Star, Johannesburg, September 8, 2005**


 * By Max du Preez**

Opponents of the ANC have been licking their chops at the prospect of the break-up of its alliance with the Communist Party and Cosatu. But it is far from certain that such a split would hold any positives for good governance or opposition politics.

I think it is now safe to say that the alliance is going to come to an end. The naked hostility between the three sets of leadership can never be fixed.

The only question is whether this will happen before the next general election or not. It has for a very long time been a rather artificial alliance, because the three allies are much further apart than is natural for groups in one political party.

The big irony is that the man who always claimed he put his party before anything else, former deputy president Jacob Zuma, is likely to be the catalyst that splits the alliance for good.

He has to know that it was within his power to stop the bitter infighting.

It is telling that Cosatu and the SACP prefer to champion the cause of a man who damages his own movement because of his personal bitterness.

An analysis that has been repeated many times in recent months is that an alliance split would “normalise” South African politics. The argument goes that Cosatu and the SACP would represent a workerist, more socialist agenda, and that the mainstream ANC would represent the social democratic middle ground with the Democratic Alliance slightly to their right.

That would mean a better representation of the whole spectrum of political views in the country, it is argued.

Some argue further that the mainstream ANC would then become the natural home for most members of the minority groups, the whites, “coloureds” and Indians.

Some add that once the alliance had split up, it would become easier for black voters to join parties until now seen as mostly supported by whites, like the DA.

These developments would represent a healthy step away from racially based politics and towards the old ideal of non-racialism, it is said.

These analyses and arguments surely are not without merit. But I’m afraid it isn’t that simple.

The first snag is that the mainstream ANC is not truly a party that espouses social democracy.

And I do believe that the true centre of South African politics is what would broadly be described as social democracy: embracing the free market principle, but with a strong emphasis on the state’s responsibilities towards the poor and unemployed.

The ANC’s economic policies have, especially since 1999, been more Thatcherite than social democratic.

The culture inside the ANC’s elite is one of unbridled capitalism.

The second snag is that the ANC under Thabo Mbeki has become an Africanist party, some would even call it a party of black nationalists (and “coloured” and Indian are not classified “black” under this definition).

While Mbeki and his small camp remain the chief ideologues of the ANC, this is unlikely to change.

If it wasn’t for economic policies, the country’s ethnic minorities would have felt a lot more at home in the Cosatu/SACP grouping, where the culture of non-racialism is much stronger.

Another factor to keep in mind is the recent behaviour of the leadership of Cosatu, to some extent even that of the SACP. Their completely irrational demands around the Zuma affair appeared to show a disregard for the democratic process and for the country’s constitution.

What they gained with their principled stands on Zimbabwe and on poverty and unemployment, they have lost with their blind and opportunistic support for Zuma. Politically intelligent people on the left will surely be very concerned about that.

My own gut feeling is that if the SACP and Cosatu were to break away today, they would probably not get more than 15% of the popular vote.

If the ANC itself then straddled the centre of our national politics more demonstrably and abandoned (or even camouflaged) some of its more radical Africanist leanings, it could hurt the DA, which itself claims the centre.

Smaller opposition parties such as the PAC, Azapo and even the IFP and the Independent Democrats could even be wiped out.

That could mean the ANC could still get in the region of two thirds of the vote.

But I could be wrong, the new Left could get up to a third of the vote with the ANC left with just over half of the voters’ support. Good liberals and other democrats love to say that a weak ruling party is good for democracy.

With what I have seen of the ANC the last few years, I’m not so sure that is true of our situation.

As was the case with Zanu-PF, there is a real danger that the ANC’s (often-repeated) commitment to an open and tolerant democracy and respect for the constitution could diminish progressively as the party’s power is eroded.

A weakened ANC could quite possibly mean a more intolerant and authoritarian government.


 * From: http://www.thestar.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=225&fArticleId=2867829