Chiara+Carter,+Star,+5+Consequences+of+Zuma+sacking

The Star, Johannesburg, June 15, 2005
=End of the road, illustrious political career shattered=


 * //The five main consequences of Zuma's sacking//**


 * By Chiara Carter**

By sacking his deputy Jacob Zuma, President Thabo Mbeki has in no uncertain terms let the ANC alliance partners know he will not be dictated to by them regarding his successor.
 * Will the alliance split?**

The departure of the second most powerful politician in the ANC amounts to nothing less than a slap in the face for those who backed him until the last minute.

Mbeki's decision follows the vociferous support for Zuma by Cosatu and the SA Communist Party in recent weeks and must be seen as a rebuff. It prompted Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi to announce the convening soon of Cosatu's top leadership structure to discuss the sacking of Zuma, who was seen as a friend of labour.

The sacking and an ANC proposal on the possible relaxation of labour legislation are likely to exacerbate already high tension among the alliance partners.

The leaders of the ANC Youth League made it clear they regard themselves as kingmakers. All of this flew in the face of ANC tradition and amounted to rumblings of revolt against Mbeki.

But his announcement yesterday that he was relieving Zuma of his executive duties made it clear who was in the driving seat and likely to stay there - the more so considering the extensive power Mbeki and his cabinet wield.

Many now fear that Zuma's sacking could spell the end of an alliance that served its purpose (for the ANC) only during elections.

Jacob Zuma's departure raises the big question: Who will President Thabo Mbeki choose to replace him.
 * Who will replace him?**

Yesterday, Mbeki said he would "in due course... announce the necessary changes in the executive".

He did not elaborate on whether he plans a major reshuffle or just minimal changes to his top team. But depending on who is chosen, other new cabinet appointments might have to take place.

Strong forerunners to become the country's second-most powerful leader are Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota and Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

Lekota is the tipsters favourite. As ANC chairperson, Lekota is next in line in terms of the party hierarchy and his portfolio is traditionally regarded as a senior post.

His election as ANC chairperson in 1997 was initially engineered by many of the ANC constituencies that recently backed Zuma. This would make it difficult for them to criticise Lekota being appointed. The defence minister has earned a reputation as a bridge-builder and has considerable personal charm.

His work as defence minister has given him the requisite experience in the international arena, while as a former chairperson of the National Council of Provinces, Lekota also has the right parliamentary expertise.

It is also possible that Mbeki may decide to appoint Dlamini-Zuma, who holds a senior position in cabinet and is regarded as a tough politician with close ties to Mbeki. Such an appointment would underline Mbeki's commitment to advancing women leadership.

The departure of the second most powerful politician in the ANC amounts to nothing less than a slap in the face of those who backed him until the last minute.
 * Who will be in the Cabinet?**

Not only did they publicly urge Jacob Zuma should keep his post, but also that he should become the next president.

Zuma's most vociferous support came from the ANC's alliance partners, Cosatu and the SA Communist Party, as well as the ANC Youth League and elements in the Women's League.

Zuma also had support from rank-and-file MPs, with Chief Whip Mbulelo Goniwe being an outspoken Zuma man.

Despite unease within both Cosatu and the SACP, leaders of these organisations publicly urged Zuma's case, while Youth League leaders made it clear they regarded themselves as kingmakers.

All of this flew in the face of ANC tradition and amounted to rumblings - if not of incipient revolt against Mbeki, then certainly a major challenge.

But Mbeki's announcement yesterday that he was relieving Zuma of his executive duties made it clear who was in the driving seat and likely to stay there - the more so considering the extensive power Mbeki and his cabinet wield in terms of decision-making and appointments.

Many are now left licking their wounds or wondering about their positions - not least Cosatu's outspoken Zwelinzima Vavi.

Thabo Mbeki's decision to get rid of Jacob Zuma is viewed as a move that will be investor-friendly for a long time to come.
 * How will it affect economy?**

But, in the short term, the markets were yesterday somewhat volatile - the rand bounced around in hectic trade.

In the long term, it is likely that the move will be market-positive - underlining the country's determination to fight corruption.

However, there are concerns as well. Much will depend on whom Mbeki chooses as his new deputy and whether he opts to conduct a major cabinet reshuffle.

Then there is concern from business that should Cosatu and the other Zuma supporters continue to defiantly protest Zuma's case, this would create an unstable political climate.

Then, too, some are waiting to see if Mbeki indeed holds sway over the restive ANC provincial structures - not to mention the militant youth and the alliance partners.

So, in a nutshell, while it may all turn out to strengthen South Africa's international position in the long term, there might be some choppy waters ahead.

Thabo Mbeki's speech has reinforced South Africa standing in the international community.
 * How will the world react?**

It has strengthened the country's stature by underlining not only a commitment to clean government, but, critically, to the country's constitution and its institutions, including the judiciary.

Indeed, even the leaders of the most powerful countries in the world might have hesitated at allowing the investigation and subsequent trial of Schabir Shaik to take place - let alone firing the deputy president.

Mbeki's move precedes the crucial Gleneagles G8 summit, where South Africa and Africa hope to see large-scale debt cancellation, but where corruption and clean governance are key issues pushed by wealthy, developed countries.

John Stremlau, the head of international relations at Wits University, said Mbeki's decision was a "defining moment for South African democracy" and reaffirmed South Africa as Africa's last great hope.

"He showed great leadership here," Stremlau said.